Factors Associated with Target Fertility in Bangladesh

Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the factors associated with target fertility in Bangladesh using nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BOHS), 2007. Simple linear regression as well as multivariate techniques named logistic regression analysis have been used to find out the direct, indirect and combined (interaction) effects of the selected socio-demographic factors on fertility. To quantify the proximate variables, we apply Bonga arts' model as well as proposed Bogart’s' model. The results of the study show that several socio-economic (socio-economic, demographic) variables effect on fertility behavior. These are age at marriage, place of residence, religion, region, education of women and men (partner's/husband's), working status of women, occupation of women and men (husband's), women's participation at NGO's, age at first birth of women, length of breastfeeding practice, contraceptive use, number of dead children (boys and girls) etc. Fertility is still high in Bangladesh, though it has been declining over time. A major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase in contraceptive use over the last 32 years; another major cause of declining fertility has been the steady increase the age at marriage. Current contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is 56% in 2007 BOHS (Mitra et, al., May 2009). The effect of marriage pattern and marital fertility, on the overall fertility of Bangladesh examined by Coal’s indices show higher influences of marriage pattern than that of marital fertility. The effect of change of marriage pattern in reducing fertility level perhaps has increased over time. Again, the age pattern of marriage and the contraceptive use have changed in a positive direction, the negative impact of which has fallen on fertility. Examination of the changes of the indicated indices at various time segments that the changed could be a recent phenomenon. To identify the change of fertility in terms of proximate variables, Bonga art’s model has been used. Among the variables in the analysis of proximate determinants of fertility happened to be in response of the effect of increase in proportion married and contraceptive use. These determinant shows that 5.69% decline due to change in the proportion of women married, 12.36% decline due to contraceptive use, 0.596% decline due to increase the index of fetal wastages and approximately 20.38% increase due to decrease of the duration of lactational in fecundability. Application of Bonga arts · model indicates that there is a downward trend in all the proximate indices. Between 1997 and 2007 the amount of decrement of total fertility rate is about 17.51 % and it is about 10.139% between 2004 and 2007. This is primarily caused by an increase in the use and effectiveness of contraceptives. The divorce and widowhood have also a major contribution on reduction of the fertility in Bangladesh. Observed TFR found to be 2.7 in 2007 and Bonga arts' model estimate the TFR is 3.21 which is far away from observed TFR but our proposed model estimates the TFR is 2. 76 which is closer to the observed TFR. Again, for consideration only abortion index in Bonga arts · model the estimated TF is 12.83 which is far away from assumed TF and our proposed model gives the value of TF is 14.99 which is very close to observed TF (15.3). So, comparing the estimated values we conclude that proposed model is better than Bonga arts· model. The study of differential fertility indicates the inverse relationship between age at marriage and fertility; education of women, men (husbands) and fertility; occupation of women, men (husbands) and fertility. We observed that fertility is higher in rural areas. There are several reasons, these include may be the rural women are less educated than urban women; rural women have poor media connection etc. Regional difference reveals that fertility is higher in Chittagong, Sylhet and Barisal than from Khulna, Rajshahi and Dhaka division. Dhaka and Rajshahi division have intermediate levels of fertility. Religion has effect on fertility behavior through Muslims and Non-Muslims. The analysis shows that fertility among Muslims is higher as compared with non-Muslims in each age group. Several variables, such as, work status of women, women's participation at NGO's suggests that labor force participation may be consequence of lower fertility than non-working counterpart. Women who are involved, with any service are not dependent on men (husbands), both socially and mentally have their own rights and absence of dependence, men cannot forcibly use women to increase their fertility. This has resulted in lower fertility. Results of logistic regression analysis indicates that place of residence, religion, age at marriage of women, age of first birth of women, women's education, contraceptive use, women's currently working status, pregnancy status, number of living children, access of mass media and involvement in NGO's are ttie most important significant variables that influence fertility in Bangladesh. According to the regression, the TFR equals, on average 7.742 births per women in the absences of contraception (CPR=0), and fertility declines at a rate of approximately 1.0 birth per women for each 9% increment in the contraceptive prevalence rate. The regression equation of TFR on CPR suggests that a TFR of 2.4 births per women can be achieved if the level of CPR will be raised to 61 % and if the level of CPR will be raised to 65% it is possible to achieve a target TFR level of 2.1 births per women. The prevalence rates are computed at the effectiveness levels of 0.85 and 0.90 such effectiveness of contraception has already reached 0.85 in the year 2007. The results indicate that if target fertility 2.6 is to be achieved then the CPR will be raised to 58% and 57% with 0.85 and 0.90 effectiveness respectively. Similarly, if target fertility 2.1 can be achieved the CPR is to be approximately 68% and 66% with 0.85 and 0.90 effectiveness respectively. The result also found that to reach the desired level of target fertility it must increase the use of contraception, duration of breastfeeding, singulate mean age at marriage and amenorrhea period. To achieve replacement level of fertility at 2.1 births per women we should increase the CPR, SMAM, duration of breastfeeding and amenorrhea period by 68%, 20.80 years, 15.5 months and 22.56 months respectively.