Probability Pattern and Effect of Extinction of Disease on Expectation of Life in Bangladesh

Abstract

Mortality is one of the three components of population change. There are several causes of mortality which are different from country to country, age to age, sex to sex and present to past. A large number of people die every year by various causes of mortality in the world. Some causes of mortality mostly which are communicable are almost eradicated by following preemptive measures whereas some other causes of mortality i.e. non-communicable diseases exhibit challenging burden. In this study an investigation has been made to get a clear conception regarding mortality, morbidity and relevant issues. So, the purpose of this study is to examine the trends and probability patterns of deaths by age due to a cause of deaths in presence of all causes and also to identify the main causes of deaths those influence the mortality rate. An attempt has also been made the eliminating effect of specific diseases on expectation of life. Again, one of the components of population analysis is the study of differential of mortality classified by socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. Thus this study attempts to identify important factors influencing non-communicable diseases related mortality. Finally, we find out the expected non-communicable disease related deaths in Bangladesh and setting the targets to control non-communicable diseases as a future plan in health sectors. Mortality trends and patterns in Bangladesh are primarily presented in the form of frequency distributions, prevalence rates, and mortality rates. This study uses Abridged Life table, Multiple Decrement Life table, Single Decrement Life table, Exponential Growth model, Polynomial Regression model, Logistic Regression model and ARIMA model for analyzing data to quantify the objectives of the study. This study uses the vital registration and maternal and child health data gathered from Matlab, Bangladesh in 2000, 2004 and 2008 collected by the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of ICDDR,B (International Centre for Diarrhea Disease Research, Bangladesh). Also, this study based on primary data which have been collected from 30th ward in Rajshahi City Corporation, Bangladesh. The result of this study shows that a huge number of people died because of non-communicable diseases. This number rapidly increases year by year at a large scale. Among non-communicable diseases, circulatory system related diseases (stroke, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease) is significant in Bangladesh. The second major cause of death is neoplasm for the national population. The analysis also warns that the burden of non-communicable diseases will significantly increase as the proportion of people aged over 40 rise. The government of Bangladesh should take necessary action to handle all the non-communicable diseases for achieving desired life expectancies in order to become a healthy nation. Some efforts have been made by governmental and non-governmental organization to set a sustainable system including physician and non-physician workers, health workers. In addition adequate supply and access to the essential medications is keenly ensured especially for the poor. Counseling services about the guidelines, treatments of non-communicable diseases for the male and female need to be arranged. Health services according to age and sex should be fixed up as an immediate goal to control the mounting trends of non-communicable diseases.