Modeling of the Women’s Reproductive Behavior and Predicted Probabilities of Contraceptive Use in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh is the most densely and is the 8th most populated country in the world. Over population or high density is one of the most important causes for both low and deteriorating living condition in Bangladesh Population is still growing. So, the situation is worsening with every passing year. Begging fully aware of the detritus effect of such rapid growths, the government, demographers, social workers, academicians, donor agencies and policy makers have declared population a problem of great importance and identified it as the number one problem in the agenda of governmental duties and functions. Like many other developing countries Bangladesh emphasizes the importance of contraceptive use for reducing fertility as a part of her overall strategy to bring down the growth rate of total population. Family planning programs work in order to achieve demographic targets through the reduction of fertility. Unfortunately, in our country there has always been a gap between target fertility and it’s getting at the terminal year of target period of all its plan period. Our country never gained either desired level of fertility (TFR) or contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). The fifth Five-Year Plan (1998-2003), where target TFR and CPR respectively had 2.5 and 60%. Whereas, the achievement had been TFR 3.0 children per woman and CPR had been 58%. It was followed by the second Sector-Wide Approach, the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Program, which began in 2003 and expired in June 2011, where target TFR and CPR respectively had 2.1 and 65%. Whereas, the achievement had been TFR 2.3 children per woman and CPR had been 61%. Additionally, the Health Population Nutrition Sector Development Program plans to reduce the TFR to 2.0 children per woman by 2016. To fulfillment such gaps there have raised questions about estimation equation used to project about CPR or contraceptive use effectiveness (UEC) in order to achieve TFR per woman at a desired level at the end of plan period or future. Thus in this study, an attempt has been made to assess the modeling of the women’s reproductive behavior and predicted probabilities of contraceptive use in Bangladesh using nationally representative data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011. To improve our clear understanding of the fertility change, we critically examine the effect of major proximate determinants on fertility and their changing effects for the period 1975 to 2011. During these periods decomposing Original Bongaarts Model (OBM) and Revised Bongaarts Model (RBM) assesses the individual contribution made by each of the four intermediate variables to change the fertility. The study also examines how well these determinants predict fertility levels of Bangladesh. Path model and binary logistic regression model have been used to find out the direct, indirect and combined (interaction) effects of the selected demographic, socio-economic factors on fertility. To achieve target fertility related with contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and contraceptive use effectiveness (UEC) four models viz., RBM and exponential regression model (ERM), polynomial regression model (PRM), linear regression model (LRM) have been applied. Revised Bongaarts model indicates that between 1989 and 2011, the amount of decrement of total fertility rate (TFR) was about 38.4%, about 42% between 1989 and 2007, 36% between 1989 and 2004, about 34% between 1989 and 1999-2000, 10% between 2004 and 2007; but the amount of increment of TFR was 6.6% between 2007 and 2011. The exogenous variables de-facto place of residence, current age of women, husband current age, education of women, wealth index have respectively 89%, 81%, 85%, 74%, 83% indirect effect on fertility. The endogenous variables women age at first marriage and women age at first birth have respectively 67% and 95%, other three endogenous variables sons who have died, women currently working and ever use contraception each has approximately 100% direct effect on fertility.